Emmanuel Macron seeking an absolute majority, what’s the election?

However, the day after Emmanuel Macron’s re-election, Marine Le Pen was expected to go on the offensive. Precisely to try to convert its 13.2 million votes on April 24. However, and this is one of the main facts of this post-presidential campaign, from the radar screens disappeared, reappeared only in recent days. The resignation, which Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not miss, cleverly turned this meeting into a “third round” of the presidential election. While he wanted to be president of the republic, he now sees himself as prime minister when Marine Le Pen sets the bar of her ambitions at “150 deputies.” It also openly assumes: “Prime Minister Macron will be here.

Presidential effect

If her opponents saw evidence there that she had given up this parliamentary election, she was asking for clarity. “He tells the truth to the French,” explains Sébastien Chenu, a representative of the RN from the North. In fact, in the light of the latest legislation, it is difficult to prove that Marine Le Pen was wrong.

As these elections take place after the presidential elections, ie since the inversion of the election calendar voted in 2001, the elected or re-elected president has never been caught late. Thus, in 2002, after his re-election against Jean-Marie Le Pen, Jacques Chirac regained a majority in the National Assembly. Nicolas Sarkozy, elected against Ségolène Royal, also won the parliamentary elections in 2007. In 2012, François Hollande’s victory at the Palais Bourbon was accompanied by a pink wave. Dynamics, which also benefited Emmanuel Macron in 2017. At the head of the party without anchoring, he won the legislative elections with 308 elected deputies.

Could this mechanism stop for the first time? Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to believe that. So what do the polls say? In this home move, they confirm this duel between the macronists associated under the heading Together! and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, now at the head of Nupes, a new popular environmental and social alliance that unites LFI, EELV, PS and PC. Another fact of these parliamentary elections is this: the Union of the Left.

Macron on the ground

Will this architecture, which his opponents call “electoral,” allow Jean-Luc Mélenchon to coerce Emmanuel Macron? At this point, polls give the presidential majority and the Nupes neck and neck. On Friday, June 3, Cluster 17 placed Nupes in the lead (31%) ahead of Together! (27%), RN (19%) and LR (10%).

But according to the Mayop survey of May 31, it’s Together! which would be in first place with 27% ahead of Nupes (25%) and RN (21%). According to this survey, pedestrians and their allies would gain 275 to 310 seats, compared to 170 to 205 for Nupes and 20 to 50 for RN. The absolute majority, which is fixed at 289 seats, could not have had Emmanuel Macron.

However, these surveys need to be taken with a grain of salt, as candidates will have to reach at least 12.5% ​​registered to maintain them. In terms of heavy abstentions, the projections are extremely difficult.

It prevents. It is no coincidence that Emmanuel Macron is back on earth. After two trips last week, to Cherbourg for health and then to Marseille for education, he will be in Tarne in Gaillac on Thursday to discuss daily safety. A visit that comes at a time when the police are highlighted again and in the viewfinder … Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A police fire killed a passenger in Paris whose driver refused to be checked.

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